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Posts Tagged ‘Mark Carney’

History shows that when the CAD was in the low 60-cent USD range in 2002, it was a great time for those holding USDs to convert some of them into CADs, as in just five years, the CAD reached parity with the USD, for an annualized gain of over 12%.

Then there was the 20% drop in the CAD in less than a full month from September to October 2008, which made it another great buying opportunity.

However, given a CAD in the mid 90-cent USD range, I don’t see many gains coming from the CAD in the medium or long-term, and the reason is the historical policy of the Bank of Canada in intentionally keeping it below parity with the USD.

Here is an article from January about the Bank’s current governor, Mark Carney, chiding a reporter expressing comfort with a 96 cent CAD. The Bank governors, prime ministers, and unfortunately, most Canadians, have this unfortunate notion that the CAD should stay below the USD in value, since it “hurts exports,” despite the fact that exports account for less than half of Canada’s total GDP.

For short-term hedging, it’s possible for the CAD to go on a tear, up to $1.10 USD, as it reached in November 2007, but personally, I wouldn’t count on getting many gains from that versus other investments, until the CAD is down into the 80-cent and low 90-cent USD range.

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