Feeds:
Posts
Comments

Posts Tagged ‘November 8 2006’

On November 8, 2006, Michael “Mish” Shedlock was on Coast to Coast AM with George Noory, to give his economic forecast.

  • He said an inverted yield curve for U.S. treasury bonds (e.g. the 6-month bond had a higher yield than a 10-year bond did), and a decline in housing starts and permits was the best predictor of an impending recession. They have predicted an impending recession every time since 1959.
  • He correctly predicted that the U.S. would be in a recession in 2008. It officially started in December 2007.
  • Americans had a negative savings rate since 2005. By February 2007, Americans had a negative savings rate for 21 consecutive months.
  • He sold a 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom house in Danville, Illinois for $14,000. A friend of his said a comparable house in Washington, D.C. would have sold for around $200k.
  • By 2006, Japan had experienced 18 consecutive years of declining real estate prices.
  • The major Japanese stock exchange index, the Nikkei 225, went from a high of around 40,000 to a low of around 7,000. Specifically, a high of 38,957 on December 29, 1989 to a low of 7,021 on March 10, 2009 — a decline of 82% over nearly 20 years.
  • Japan had a central bank rate of 0.25%, which the U.S. central bank, the Federal Reserve, adopted inĀ December, 2008.

Read Full Post »