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Posts Tagged ‘recession’

Previously, I uncovered that the CIA is overstating Canada’s government spending by more than 200%, by inconsistently reporting all government spending for Canada, and only federal spending for the U.S., despite both having a federal system of government.

Looking through Canada’s numbers again, I noticed its massive exports hemorrhage from 2008 to 2009. This time, the CIA’s numbers are correct.

From Canada’s entry in The World Factbook:

Exports:
$323.4 billion (2009 est.)
country comparison to the world: 11
$459.1 billion (2008 est.)

Exports decreased by a whopping 30% from 2008 to 2009, despite the downturn not hitting Canada hard until September 2008, when, as one example, the Canadian dollar declined by 20% relative to the USD in less than a full month.

By comparison, U.S. exports “only” fell by 14% from 2008 to 2009, despite officially being in recession since December 2007.

The CIA states that export figures are stated in U.S. dollars based on the official exchange rate. Given an estimated GDP of $1.335 trillion for 2009, Canada’s exports only accounted for 24% of its GDP. Imports for 2009 were estimated to be $327.2 billion, resulting in net exports of -$3.8 billion.

In a forthcoming article, I’ll expand on my discussion from July 1 on “Crash! Are You Ready?” on why claims of a higher dollar being bad for exports are overly simplistic, and how it’s been completely counterproductive for Canada’s central bank and leading politicians to be slavishly devoted to keeping the Canadian dollar below par with the USD. In doing so, they argue for and support government intervention for 24% of the economy at the expense of the other 76%.

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Since 2009, I have heard two prominent financial analysts repeatedly make the claim on multiple programs, including two major ones with over a million weekly listeners, that gold and silver are all you can rely on. But what about platinum?

How much can you really rely on gold and silver, when gold was confiscated by the U.S. government in 1933 at the height of the Great Depression, and silver in 1934. And how can you specifically rely on gold when it’s the commodity most controlled by the international bankers, and a reserve currency for national and international banks?

Unlike gold and silver, a confiscation of platinum is unlikely for several reasons:
1) It’s not a reserve currency for national and international banks like gold is.
2) It isn’t as widely held as gold and silver.
3) Its historical investment and currency use is shorter than gold and silver.
4) Its decreased demand relative to gold and silver in a recession, due to its overwhelming industrial demand, leading to better performance during the subsequent recovery.

When I mention platinum as an investment comparable to gold and silver, I’ve been told that platinum has little to no historical use as a currency. As I wrote previously, platinum has an international currency code along with gold, silver and palladium. Since 1988, one ounce platinum coins from the Royal Canadian Mint have a legal tender value of $50. Since 1997, American Platinum Eagles from the United States Mint have a legal tender value of $100.

From 1967-1978, the first and only regularly minted gold coin available for the masses was the South African Krugerrand. However, due to trade sanctions imposed by many Western countries on South Africa for their policy of apartheid, the Krugerrand’s availability was severely limited from the 1970s until 1994.

It got some serious competition in 1979, when the Royal Canadian Mint began minting Canadian Gold Maple Leaf coins. Just nine years later, at the height of sanctions on the import of Krugerrands, one ounce platinum coins were minted by the Royal Canadian Mint between 1988, and continued to be minted until 2002, and were reintroduced in 2009.

Not only can you rely on platinum as a historically non-confiscatable metal, you can also rely on it historically trading at a substantial premium over gold. Over most of the past decade, platinum has traded at a 50 to 100% premium over gold. At a 38% premium over gold at the end of January 2010, it still has plenty of room to appreciate to its historical trading premium relative to gold.

Recently, platinum outperformed gold in 2009, and for the first month of 2010.

Now ask yourself why you’re being told that gold and silver, and not platinum, are the only things you can rely on, why gold and silver are being pushed so much, and not platinum, and why most of you haven’t heard these things about platinum before.

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On November 8, 2006, Michael “Mish” Shedlock was on Coast to Coast AM with George Noory, to give his economic forecast.

  • He said an inverted yield curve for U.S. treasury bonds (e.g. the 6-month bond had a higher yield than a 10-year bond did), and a decline in housing starts and permits was the best predictor of an impending recession. They have predicted an impending recession every time since 1959.
  • He correctly predicted that the U.S. would be in a recession in 2008. It officially started in December 2007.
  • Americans had a negative savings rate since 2005. By February 2007, Americans had a negative savings rate for 21 consecutive months.
  • He sold a 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom house in Danville, Illinois for $14,000. A friend of his said a comparable house in Washington, D.C. would have sold for around $200k.
  • By 2006, Japan had experienced 18 consecutive years of declining real estate prices.
  • The major Japanese stock exchange index, the Nikkei 225, went from a high of around 40,000 to a low of around 7,000. Specifically, a high of 38,957 on December 29, 1989 to a low of 7,021 on March 10, 2009 — a decline of 82% over nearly 20 years.
  • Japan had a central bank rate of 0.25%, which the U.S. central bank, the Federal Reserve, adopted in December, 2008.

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Fauxcapitalist.com turns one year old today.

While the media and government officials say the recession is over and recovery is on the way, the fundamentals tell a very different story.

Stay tuned for more articles about what’s really going on and how YOU can be educated to survive and thrive throughout all the daily spin.

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