Posts Tagged ‘statistics’

English: A deid (dead) Bell from Glasgow. Date...

One month since the Daily Bell ended comments on April 25, 2012, its Alexa ranking has tanked, showing that by May 27, it had a one-month ranking of 106,899, a 7-day ranking of 96,710, and a 3-month ranking of 71,591.

Once its three-month ranking falls below 100,000, it will no longer warrant Alexa’s daily compilation of in-depth statistics. I see that it has fallen so far that the confidence factor of the visitor demographic information is down from a high level of confidence to only medium.

If this trend continues, the Daily Bell will have to fold and start up as another site, appearing sufficiently different for most of its readers not to realize that it’s a case of Meet the New Boss, Same as the Old Boss.

To those who ask what one individual can do to affect change, it was the efforts of several individuals who challenged the suspicious and highly questionable statements by the Daily Bell and some of its supporters that eventually led the DB to pull the plug on comments.

For more on the Daily Bell, see my articles here.

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My recent correspondence with a prominent member of the liberty community on the H1N1 flu scam:

“You mentioned some H1N1 CDC statistics you had come across in December of last year.

You mentioned their claim of 12,000 H1N1 deaths in the U.S., and that is confirmed in their document here.

Then, you mentioned 0.8 per 100,000 deaths from H1N1 in the entire U.S., which would be approximately 2400 deaths, as you mentioned.

However, the only reference to that number that I came across in their documents is 0.8 per 100,000 deaths among whites who contracted H1N1, as you can see here, so if that was the statistic you saw then, their statistic of 12,000 deaths is possible.

As for those numbers, they are estimates, and the CDC says that 12,000 deaths is the midpoint between 8870 and 18,300, which is a variance of over 100%.

If the WHO’s numbers are also an estimate and have similar variance, then we could be talking as few as 8870 deaths in the U.S., and as many as 27,000 worldwide, dropping the ratio of U.S. deaths from 67% to 32%. Given that the cases emanated out of North America, specifically Mexico and the U.S. Southwest, and that the CDC reports a death rate 75% higher for Hispanics than whites, the seemingly outlandish number of 67% of all H1N1 deaths becomes less outlandish.

And as much as I don’t trust the CDC, I trust the WHO even less, given that they are further away from national and subnational control by the people, and that their founder was a eugenicist.”

Since then, I found that the WHO’s numbers are an actual count and not an estimate. They confirmed this on February 24, 2010:

The global impact of the current pandemic has not yet been estimated. Typically, the numbers of deaths from seasonal influenza or past pandemics are estimated using statistical models.

By contrast, the currently reported counts of over 16,000 deaths from pandemic H1N1 represent individually tested and confirmed deaths, primarily reported from countries with adequate resources for widespread laboratory testing.

However, they make the seemingly bizarre claim that an estimate is better than an actual count:

This approach has never been used to count seasonal or previous pandemic deaths and results in a significant underestimate.

A more accurate assessment of mortality from the pandemic, using statistical models, will likely be possible in about one to two years.

Therefore, it seems reasonable to me that their latest count of around 18,000 deaths could be between 27,000 to 36,000 with their forthcoming estimate, bringing the ratio of estimated U.S. deaths to as low as 24 to 32% of all estimated deaths worldwide.

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