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Posts Tagged ‘stock market’

United States dollar

On December 14, 2010, Porter Stansberry of Stansberry Research Associates released a video called “The End of America.”

In it, he made the claim (at 6:18):

Let me back up and show you in the simplest terms possible what is going on, why I am so concerned… and what I believe will happen in the next 12 months.

He then went on to talk about the end of the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency (13:40).

“The U.S. dollar has been the world’s reserve currency for decades now. So most Americans don’t have a clue about what the repercussions are of losing this status.

Commenting on the likelihood of Stansberry’s prediction much earlier than October 2011 wouldn’t have been that useful, as we learned in 2008, when the U.S. stock market was relatively high prior to September, before things began to massively collapse.

And, obviously a prediction much later than now wouldn’t be of much value either. Therefore, on October 23, 2011, I predict that Stansberry’s prediction is likely not to come true.

Eventually, the U.S. dollar will lose its status as the world reserve currency, since nothing lasts forever, and especially not a currency whose status is imposed through artificial forces, and not market forces.

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New York stock market index

When I applied for a pre-approved mortgage at the height of the financial crisis in early 2009, the bank asked for the current market value of my assets.

At the same time, many U.S. banks were marking their assets to model, meaning they could decide what to value them at based on a model they created.

While the very banks that marked their assets up based on pre-crash levels  to sell mortgages to customers on the basis of having the collateral, they expected something different from their customers. Namely, the current market value of their assets, which were mostly highly depreciated relative to a year prior.

The world’s richest man as of the end of 2010, Warren Buffett, before he turned his back on his principles, wrote in 2002:

In extreme cases, mark-to-model degenerates into what I would call mark-to-myth.

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